Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$39.20
Total payout
$59.20
Joint prob
35.1%
Combined odds
2.96
Fair odds
2.85
Edge
+3.9%
Expected value: +$0.79 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.79 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 35.1% · fair market: 32.9% · edge: +6.8%
Model probabilities Elina Svitolina 35.1% · Iga Swiatek 64.9% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1890) is +23 over Elina Svitolina (1867); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 35.1% vs market 32.9% (edge +6.8%, suggested Kelly +2.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.