Model probabilities Tommy Paul 75.7% · Daniel Merida Aguilar 24.3% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1749) is +160 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1589); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 75.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.