Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$3.20
Total payout
$23.20
Joint prob
91.2%
Combined odds
1.16
Fair odds
1.10
Edge
+5.8%
Expected value: +$1.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 91.2% · fair market: 82.9% · edge: +10.1%
Model probabilities Elina Svitolina 91.2% · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 8.8% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1836) is +323 over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (1513); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 91.2% vs market 82.9% (edge +10.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.