Model probabilities Elisabetta Cocciaretto 50.9% · Lucrezia Stefanini 49.1% Why Elisabetta Cocciaretto is favoured Elisabetta Cocciaretto's Elo (1552) is +113 over Lucrezia Stefanini (1439); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 75.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.