Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Wu Yibing
To win
+$13.20
Total payout
$33.20
Joint prob
65.3%
Combined odds
1.66
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+8.5%
Expected value: +$1.69 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.3% · fair market: 58.7% · edge: +11.3%
Model probabilities James Duckworth 34.7% · Wu Yibing 65.3% Calibration Raw model: 31.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 34.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.3% vs market 58.7% (edge +11.3%, suggested Kelly +12.8% of bankroll).