Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katie Boulter
To win
+$57.60
Total payout
$77.60
Joint prob
46.3%
Combined odds
3.88
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
+79.8%
Expected value: +$15.96 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$15.96 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.3% · fair market: 25.0% · edge: +85.7%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 53.7% · Katie Boulter 46.3% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1752) is +149 over Katie Boulter (1603); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.3% vs market 25.0% (edge +85.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.