▸ Sealed before kickoff3.0h before kickoff2026-08-04 19:02 UTC· result settled — verifiable
86%
High confidence
clear rating gap · strong sample · confident top pick
How the model did
Final
2 — 0
Brandon Nakashima won
✓ Model was right
Model assigned
75.6%
to brandon nakashima
Model's top pick
home
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.119
Log loss (↓ better)
0.280
Graded Aug 5, 2026 · 04:03
Form & matchup
Brandon Nakashima
Elo 1699
No recent matches on file.
Daniel Altmaier
Elo 1468
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Brandon Nakashima +231
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Brandon Nakashima
–
Daniel Altmaier
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Brandon Nakashima
75.6%
Daniel Altmaier
24.4%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Brandon Nakashima 75.6% · Daniel Altmaier 24.4%
Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured
Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1617) is +113 over Daniel Altmaier (1503); high confidence.
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