Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$57.40
Total payout
$77.40
Joint prob
26.3%
Combined odds
3.87
Fair odds
3.80
Edge
+2.0%
Expected value: +$0.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 26.3% · fair market: 25.1% · edge: +4.8%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 73.7% · Jaume Munar 26.3% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1772) is +163 over Jaume Munar (1609); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 73.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 26.3% vs market 25.1% (edge +4.8%, suggested Kelly +0.7% of bankroll).