Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ugo Humbert
To win
+$39.20
Total payout
$59.20
Joint prob
42.2%
Combined odds
2.96
Fair odds
2.37
Edge
+25.0%
Expected value: +$4.99 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.99 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.2% · fair market: 32.9% · edge: +28.4%
Model probabilities Brandon Nakashima 57.8% · Ugo Humbert 42.2% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1699) is +46 over Ugo Humbert (1653); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 63.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 42.2% vs market 32.9% (edge +28.4%, suggested Kelly +12.7% of bankroll).