Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sinja Kraus
To win
+$76.80
Total payout
$96.80
Joint prob
24.6%
Combined odds
4.84
Fair odds
4.06
Edge
+19.2%
Expected value: +$3.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 24.6% · fair market: 20.1% · edge: +22.4%
Model probabilities Sinja Kraus 24.6% · Nikola Bartunkova 75.4% Why Nikola Bartunkova is favoured Nikola Bartunkova's Elo (1629) is +154 over Sinja Kraus (1475); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 19.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 24.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 24.6% vs market 20.1% (edge +22.4%, suggested Kelly +5.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.