Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fery
To win
+$39.00
Total payout
$59.00
Joint prob
37.5%
Combined odds
2.95
Fair odds
2.66
Edge
+10.7%
Expected value: +$2.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.5% · fair market: 32.8% · edge: +14.4%
Model probabilities Karen Khachanov 62.5% · Arthur Fery 37.5% Why Karen Khachanov is favoured Karen Khachanov's Elo (1587) is +57 over Arthur Fery (1530); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 65.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.5% vs market 32.8% (edge +14.4%, suggested Kelly +5.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.