Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Linda Fruhvirtova
To win
+$62.00
Total payout
$82.00
Joint prob
24.2%
Combined odds
4.10
Fair odds
4.13
Edge
-0.7%
Expected value: $-0.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 24.2% · fair market: 22.9% · edge: +5.6%
Model probabilities Linda Fruhvirtova 24.2% · Liudmila Samsonova 75.8% Why Liudmila Samsonova is favoured Liudmila Samsonova's Elo (1609) is +142 over Linda Fruhvirtova (1467); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 24.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 24.2% vs market 22.9% (edge +5.6%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.