Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ariana Arseneault
To win
+$109.00
Total payout
$129.00
Joint prob
51.1%
Combined odds
6.45
Fair odds
1.96
Edge
+229.6%
Expected value: +$45.92 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$45.92 on a $20 stake.
Market: Marathon Bet ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.1% · fair market: 14.7% · edge: +248.0%
Model probabilities Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 48.9% · Ariana Arseneault 51.1% +EV vs market away: model 51.1% vs market 14.7% (edge +248.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.