Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alejandro Tabilo
To win
+$43.40
Total payout
$63.40
Joint prob
48.8%
Combined odds
3.17
Fair odds
2.05
Edge
+54.8%
Expected value: +$10.96 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.96 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.8% · fair market: 30.8% · edge: +58.6%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 51.2% · Alejandro Tabilo 48.8% Why Rafael Jodar is favoured Rafael Jodar's Elo (1613) is +48 over Alejandro Tabilo (1565); low confidence. Calibration Raw model: 63.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.8% vs market 30.8% (edge +58.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.