Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniil Medvedev
To win
+$3.00
Total payout
$23.00
Joint prob
87.6%
Combined odds
1.15
Fair odds
1.14
Edge
+0.7%
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 87.6% · fair market: 83.8% · edge: +4.5%
Model probabilities Ignacio Buse 12.4% · Daniil Medvedev 87.6% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1804) is +342 over Ignacio Buse (1462); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 8.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 12.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 87.6% vs market 83.8% (edge +4.5%, suggested Kelly +4.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.