Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alycia Parks
To win
+$13.20
Total payout
$33.20
Joint prob
64.5%
Combined odds
1.66
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+7.1%
Expected value: +$1.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.5% · fair market: 58.5% · edge: +10.2%
Model probabilities Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 35.5% · Alycia Parks 64.5% Why Alycia Parks is favoured Alycia Parks's Elo (1519) is +52 over Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (1467); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 64.5% vs market 58.5% (edge +10.2%, suggested Kelly +10.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.