Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.2% · fair market: 55.8% · edge: +2.5%
Model probabilities Tomas Martin Etcheverry 57.2% · Jacob Fearnley 42.8% Why Tomas Martin Etcheverry is favoured Tomas Martin Etcheverry's Elo (1563) is +101 over Jacob Fearnley (1461); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.