Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Darwin Blanch
To win
+$368.80
Total payout
$388.80
Joint prob
30.4%
Combined odds
19.44
Fair odds
3.28
Edge
+491.8%
Expected value: +$98.36 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$98.36 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.4% · fair market: 5.0% · edge: +505.0%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 69.6% · Darwin Blanch 30.4% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1761) is +278 over Darwin Blanch (1483); low confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.4% vs market 5.0% (edge +505.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.