Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Polina Iatcenko
To win
+$351.00
Total payout
$371.00
Joint prob
17.2%
Combined odds
18.55
Fair odds
5.82
Edge
+218.7%
Expected value: +$43.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$43.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 17.2% · fair market: 5.3% · edge: +226.6%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 82.8% · Polina Iatcenko 17.2% Calibration Raw model: 97.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 82.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 17.2% vs market 5.3% (edge +226.6%, suggested Kelly +12.5% of bankroll).