Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 19.3% · fair market: 19.1% · edge: +1.0%
Model probabilities Lilli Tagger 19.3% · Amanda Anisimova 80.7% Calibration Raw model: 8.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.