Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Simona Waltert
To win
+$204.40
Total payout
$224.40
Joint prob
13.1%
Combined odds
11.22
Fair odds
7.61
Edge
+47.5%
Expected value: +$9.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.1% · fair market: 8.6% · edge: +52.3%
Model probabilities Simona Waltert 13.1% · Jessica Pegula 86.9% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1904) is +447 over Simona Waltert (1458); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 4.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 13.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 13.1% vs market 8.6% (edge +52.3%, suggested Kelly +4.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.