Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Cameron Norrie
To win
+$111.20
Total payout
$131.20
Joint prob
20.0%
Combined odds
6.56
Fair odds
4.99
Edge
+31.4%
Expected value: +$6.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 20.0% · fair market: 14.8% · edge: +35.3%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 80.0% · Cameron Norrie 20.0% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1883) is +244 over Cameron Norrie (1639); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 87.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 80.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 20.0% vs market 14.8% (edge +35.3%, suggested Kelly +5.6% of bankroll).