Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tallon Griekspoor
To win
+$15.80
Total payout
$35.80
Joint prob
75.3%
Combined odds
1.79
Fair odds
1.33
Edge
+34.7%
Expected value: +$6.95 on a $20 stake.
Tallon Griekspoor required a medical timeout for a back injury during his match on August 8, 2026, at the ATP Canadian Open. This recent injury could impact his performance in the upcoming match against Daniel Merida Aguilar. Merida Aguilar, a replacement in the draw, has achieved his first tour-level hardcourt wins at this tournament, indicating strong current form.
Expected value: +$6.95 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.3% · fair market: 54.2% · edge: +38.8%
Model probabilities Tallon Griekspoor 75.3% · Daniel Merida Aguilar 24.7% Why Tallon Griekspoor is favoured Tallon Griekspoor's Elo (1657) is +111 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1546); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market home: model 75.3% vs market 54.2% (edge +38.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.