Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nikola Bartunkova
To win
+$12.80
Total payout
$32.80
Joint prob
73.4%
Combined odds
1.64
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+20.3%
Expected value: +$4.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.4% · fair market: 59.2% · edge: +23.9%
Model probabilities Nikola Bartunkova 73.4% · Bianca Andreescu 26.6% Why Nikola Bartunkova is favoured Nikola Bartunkova's Elo (1562) is +98 over Bianca Andreescu (1464); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 73.4% vs market 59.2% (edge +23.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.