Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Michelsen
To win
+$7.00
Total payout
$27.00
Joint prob
78.5%
Combined odds
1.35
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+6.0%
Expected value: +$1.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.5% · fair market: 72.0% · edge: +8.9%
Alex Michelsen has demonstrated strong recent form on hard courts, including winning the Bloomfield Hills Challenger and reaching the quarterfinals of the Mubadala DC Open. He pushed Taylor Fritz to three sets in his last match, indicating competitive play against higher-ranked opponents.
Lineup: Alex Michelsen is expected to start in the ATP Canadian Open.
Jan-Lennard Struff recently achieved a career milestone by reaching his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon at 36 years old. However, his most recent tournament appearance resulted in a straight-sets loss in the first round of Kitzbuhel.
Lineup: Jan-Lennard Struff is expected to participate in the ATP Canadian Open.
“Alex Michelsen enters Canadian Open with strong recent form, while Jan-Lennard Struff looks to rebound from a recent loss after a career-best Wimbledon performance.”
Model probabilities Alex Michelsen 78.5% · Jan-Lennard Struff 21.5% Why Alex Michelsen is favoured Alex Michelsen's Elo (1654) is +136 over Jan-Lennard Struff (1517); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 78.5% vs market 72.0% (edge +8.9%, suggested Kelly +17.0% of bankroll). News context Alex Michelsen enters Canadian Open with strong recent form, while Jan-Lennard Struff looks to rebound from a recent loss after a career-best Wimbledon performance. Alex Michelsen: Alex Michelsen has demonstrated strong recent form on hard courts, including winning the Bloomfield Hills Challenger and reaching the quarterfinals of the Mubadala DC Open. He pushed Taylor Fritz to three sets in his last match, indicating competitive play against higher-ranked opponents. Jan-Lennard Struff: Jan-Lennard Struff recently achieved a career milestone by reaching his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon at 36 years old. However, his most recent tournament appearance resulted in a straight-sets loss in the first round of Kitzbuhel.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.