Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anna Kalinskaya
To win
+$44.20
Total payout
$64.20
Joint prob
39.2%
Combined odds
3.21
Fair odds
2.55
Edge
+25.9%
Expected value: +$5.18 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.18 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 39.2% · fair market: 30.2% · edge: +29.8%
Model probabilities Elina Svitolina 60.8% · Anna Kalinskaya 39.2% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1865) is +143 over Anna Kalinskaya (1721); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 39.2% vs market 30.2% (edge +29.8%, suggested Kelly +11.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.