Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dino Prizmic
To win
+$81.40
Total payout
$101.40
Joint prob
22.6%
Combined odds
5.07
Fair odds
4.42
Edge
+14.8%
Expected value: +$2.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.6% · fair market: 19.3% · edge: +17.6%
Model probabilities Dino Prizmic 22.6% · Tommy Paul 77.4% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1743) is +252 over Dino Prizmic (1490); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 12.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 22.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 22.6% vs market 19.3% (edge +17.6%, suggested Kelly +3.6% of bankroll).