Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jesper De Jong
To win
+$43.00
Total payout
$63.00
Joint prob
44.1%
Combined odds
3.15
Fair odds
2.27
Edge
+39.0%
Expected value: +$7.81 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.81 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.1% · fair market: 29.7% · edge: +48.7%
Model probabilities Zizou Bergs 55.9% · Jesper De Jong 44.1% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1581) is +88 over Jesper De Jong (1493); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 71.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 44.1% vs market 29.7% (edge +48.7%, suggested Kelly +18.2% of bankroll).