Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zeynep Sonmez
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
81.5%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+6.8%
Expected value: +$1.36 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.36 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.5% · fair market: 74.1% · edge: +10.1%
Model probabilities Rebecca Marino 18.5% · Zeynep Sonmez 81.5% Why Zeynep Sonmez is favoured Zeynep Sonmez's Elo (1556) is +168 over Rebecca Marino (1387); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 81.5% vs market 74.1% (edge +10.1%, suggested Kelly +21.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.