Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thanasi Kokkinakis
To win
+$33.60
Total payout
$53.60
Joint prob
65.9%
Combined odds
2.68
Fair odds
1.52
Edge
+76.6%
Expected value: +$15.32 on a $20 stake.
Thanasi Kokkinakis recently withdrew from the Montreal Open qualifier due to injury, and his fitness for the ATP Cincinnati Open match against Nuno Borges is being questioned. He is competing on a protected ranking due to a history of significant injuries, including pectoral surgery in 2025 and recurring shoulder issues. Nuno Borges, in contrast, is in good form, having reached the fourth round of the Montreal Open.
Thanasi Kokkinakis is playing on a protected ranking and his fitness is a concern following a recent injury withdrawal from the Montreal Open qualifier. He has a history of pectoral and shoulder injuries.
Expected value: +$15.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.9% · fair market: 36.2% · edge: +82.1%
Model probabilities Nuno Borges 34.1% · Thanasi Kokkinakis 65.9% Why Thanasi Kokkinakis is favoured Thanasi Kokkinakis's Elo (1611) is +31 over Nuno Borges (1579); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 40.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 34.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.9% vs market 36.2% (edge +82.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.