Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylor Fritz
To win
+$12.80
Total payout
$32.80
Joint prob
87.1%
Combined odds
1.64
Fair odds
1.15
Edge
+42.9%
Expected value: +$8.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 87.1% · fair market: 60.6% · edge: +43.8%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 87.1% · Rafael Jodar 12.9% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1765) is +245 over Rafael Jodar (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market home: model 87.1% vs market 60.6% (edge +43.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.