Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Sakkari
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
62.7%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.60
Edge
+4.7%
Expected value: +$0.94 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.94 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.7% · fair market: 58.3% · edge: +7.6%
Model probabilities Maria Sakkari 62.7% · Robin Montgomery 37.3% Why Maria Sakkari is favoured Maria Sakkari's Elo (1652) is +169 over Robin Montgomery (1483); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 62.7% vs market 58.3% (edge +7.6%, suggested Kelly +7.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.