Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Felix Auger-Aliassime
To win
+$15.20
Total payout
$35.20
Joint prob
76.3%
Combined odds
1.76
Fair odds
1.31
Edge
+34.4%
Expected value: +$6.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.3% · fair market: 55.0% · edge: +38.8%
Model probabilities Stefanos Tsitsipas 23.7% · Felix Auger-Aliassime 76.3% Why Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured Felix Auger-Aliassime's Elo (1800) is +168 over Stefanos Tsitsipas (1632); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 76.3% vs market 55.0% (edge +38.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.