Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$92.00
Total payout
$112.00
Joint prob
43.8%
Combined odds
5.60
Fair odds
2.28
Edge
+145.5%
Expected value: +$29.11 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$29.11 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.8% · fair market: 17.5% · edge: +150.2%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 56.2% · Francisco Cerundolo 43.8% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1772) is +91 over Francisco Cerundolo (1682); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 56.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 43.8% vs market 17.5% (edge +150.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).