Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alina Charaeva
To win
+$9.40
Total payout
$29.40
Joint prob
73.8%
Combined odds
1.47
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+8.5%
Expected value: +$1.70 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.70 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.8% · fair market: 65.3% · edge: +13.0%
Model probabilities Rebecca Marino 26.2% · Alina Charaeva 73.8% Calibration Raw model: 23.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.8% vs market 65.3% (edge +13.0%, suggested Kelly +18.1% of bankroll).