Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zsombor Piros
To win
+$37.20
Total payout
$57.20
Joint prob
59.6%
Combined odds
2.86
Fair odds
1.68
Edge
+70.4%
Expected value: +$14.08 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$14.08 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.6% · fair market: 33.9% · edge: +75.5%
Model probabilities Mattia Bellucci 40.4% · Zsombor Piros 59.6% Why Zsombor Piros is favoured Zsombor Piros's Elo (1499) is +25 over Mattia Bellucci (1474); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 42.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.6% vs market 33.9% (edge +75.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.