Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jessica Pegula
To win
+$11.20
Total payout
$31.20
Joint prob
87.8%
Combined odds
1.56
Fair odds
1.14
Edge
+36.9%
Expected value: +$7.38 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.38 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 87.8% · fair market: 62.3% · edge: +40.8%
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 87.8% · Alexandra Eala 12.2% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1925) is +255 over Alexandra Eala (1670); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 87.8% vs market 62.3% (edge +40.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.