Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Leolia Jeanjean
To win
+$65.40
Total payout
$85.40
Joint prob
32.9%
Combined odds
4.27
Fair odds
3.04
Edge
+40.4%
Expected value: +$8.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.9% · fair market: 22.9% · edge: +43.4%
Model probabilities Anastasia Potapova 67.1% · Leolia Jeanjean 32.9% Why Anastasia Potapova is favoured Anastasia Potapova's Elo (1628) is +238 over Leolia Jeanjean (1390); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 67.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 32.9% vs market 23.7% (edge +38.4%, suggested Kelly +11.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.