Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
To win
+$51.20
Total payout
$71.20
Joint prob
30.1%
Combined odds
3.56
Fair odds
3.32
Edge
+7.3%
Expected value: +$1.47 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.47 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.1% · fair market: 27.3% · edge: +10.2%
Model probabilities Camilo Ugo Carabelli 30.1% · Miomir Kecmanovic 69.9% Why Miomir Kecmanovic is favoured Miomir Kecmanovic's Elo (1534) is +69 over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1465); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 31.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 30.1% vs market 27.3% (edge +10.2%, suggested Kelly +2.9% of bankroll).