Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jessica Pegula
To win
+$1.60
Total payout
$21.60
Joint prob
95.6%
Combined odds
1.08
Fair odds
1.05
Edge
+3.3%
Expected value: +$0.65 on a $20 stake.
Jessica Pegula recently battled illness and experienced significant fatigue due to a demanding schedule and rain delays at the DC Open, which concluded on August 5, 2026, potentially impacting her fitness for the upcoming match. No material integrity flags or significant morale/squad harmony issues were found for Kamilla Rakhimova within the last 14 days.
Jessica Pegula revealed she battled illness that nearly forced her withdrawal from the DC Open, where she lost in the final, and also stated she was 'really tired' due to consecutive matches without rest and rain delays affecting her momentum.
Jessica Pegula's recent battle with illness and reported fatigue from the demanding DC Open schedule may affect her fitness and on-court performance.
Expected value: +$0.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 95.6% · fair market: 84.7% · edge: +12.8%
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 95.6% · Kamilla Rakhimova 4.4% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1929) is +456 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1472); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 95.6% vs market 84.7% (edge +12.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.