Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dayana Yastremska
To win
+$18.20
Total payout
$38.20
Joint prob
73.5%
Combined odds
1.91
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+40.3%
Expected value: +$8.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.5% · fair market: 50.6% · edge: +45.1%
Model probabilities Tatjana Maria 26.5% · Dayana Yastremska 73.5% Why Dayana Yastremska is favoured Dayana Yastremska's Elo (1521) is +116 over Tatjana Maria (1405); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 24.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.5% vs market 50.6% (edge +45.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.