Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 4.9% · fair market: 4.9% · edge: -0.3%
Model probabilities Renata Zarazua 4.9% · Aryna Sabalenka 95.1% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2044) is +560 over Renata Zarazua (1484); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 2.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 4.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.