Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Machac
To win
+$10.00
Total payout
$30.00
Joint prob
71.6%
Combined odds
1.50
Fair odds
1.40
Edge
+7.5%
Expected value: +$1.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.6% · fair market: 60.7% · edge: +18.0%
Model probabilities Kyrian Jacquet 28.4% · Tomas Machac 71.6% Why Tomas Machac is favoured Tomas Machac's Elo (1637) is +117 over Kyrian Jacquet (1520); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 23.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 71.6% vs market 60.7% (edge +18.0%, suggested Kelly +14.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.