Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ella Seidel
To win
+$45.20
Total payout
$65.20
Joint prob
55.8%
Combined odds
3.26
Fair odds
1.79
Edge
+82.0%
Expected value: +$16.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$16.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.8% · fair market: 29.7% · edge: +87.7%
Model probabilities Yuliia Starodubtseva 44.2% · Ella Seidel 55.8% Why Ella Seidel is favoured Elo essentially level (1458 vs 1458) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 50.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 55.8% vs market 29.7% (edge +87.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.