Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Harriet Dart
To win
+$158.40
Total payout
$178.40
Joint prob
33.7%
Combined odds
8.92
Fair odds
2.96
Edge
+201.0%
Expected value: +$40.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$40.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.7% · fair market: 10.8% · edge: +212.4%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 66.3% · Harriet Dart 33.7% Why Iva Jović is favoured Iva Jović's Elo (1535) is +96 over Harriet Dart (1439); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 73.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.7% vs market 10.8% (edge +212.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.