Model probabilities Titouan Droguet 25.2% · Matteo Berrettini 74.8% Why Matteo Berrettini is favoured Matteo Berrettini's Elo (1656) is +139 over Titouan Droguet (1517); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.