Model probabilities Quentin Halys 20.7% · Frances Tiafoe 79.3% Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1740) is +203 over Quentin Halys (1538); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.