Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Wu Yibing
To win
+$210.40
Total payout
$230.40
Joint prob
12.2%
Combined odds
11.52
Fair odds
8.23
Edge
+40.0%
Expected value: +$8.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 12.2% · fair market: 8.4% · edge: +44.2%
Model probabilities Wu Yibing 12.2% · Carlos Alcaraz 87.8% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2031) is +519 over Wu Yibing (1513); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 3.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 12.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 12.2% vs market 8.4% (edge +44.2%, suggested Kelly +3.8% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.