Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Denis Shapovalov
To win
+$15.00
Total payout
$35.00
Joint prob
59.2%
Combined odds
1.75
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+3.7%
Expected value: +$0.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.2% · fair market: 55.8% · edge: +6.2%
Model probabilities Denis Shapovalov 59.2% · Luca Van Assche 40.8% Why Denis Shapovalov is favoured Denis Shapovalov's Elo (1586) is +124 over Luca Van Assche (1462); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 59.2% vs market 55.8% (edge +6.2%, suggested Kelly +4.9% of bankroll).