Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maja Chwalinska
To win
+$61.20
Total payout
$81.20
Joint prob
37.7%
Combined odds
4.06
Fair odds
2.65
Edge
+53.2%
Expected value: +$10.64 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.64 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.7% · fair market: 24.0% · edge: +57.4%
Model probabilities Diana Shnaider 62.3% · Maja Chwalinska 37.7% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1687) is +163 over Maja Chwalinska (1524); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.7% vs market 24.0% (edge +57.4%, suggested Kelly +17.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.